EUR/USD · daily candles Data as of the close on 18/09/2026
EUR/USD trading analysis: daily and weekly
1.14903 +0.18% Last close
- RSI (14)
- 37.0
- vs. 50-day average
- -0.41%
- Projected close in 5 candles
- 1.1538 +0.42%
- Typical daily range
- 0.45%
EUR/USD (euro-dollar) trading follows how many dollars one euro costs, the most traded currency pair in the world. This page does a daily and weekly trading analysis: bullish or bearish trend, support and resistance levels, a weekly forecast for the next 5 sessions from an algorithmic model and this month's US economic calendar.
Educational and informational content: it is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading involves risk of loss. full disclaimer.
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
Timeframe: Daily (1D)Each candle is one day (daily timeframe, 1D). Hover any candle to see its data. Drag to move around, change the range with the buttons and switch layers on or off. The colored lines and zones are the detected support and resistance levels; the hollow candles at the end, with their date underneath, are the projection for the next 5 days.
Tip: with “Draw line” or “Draw zone” you can mark your own levels on the chart.
EUR/USD hourly MACD
Timeframe: Hourly (1H)The MACD measures price momentum by comparing two averages (12 and 26 hours). Here each bar is one hour: it shows whether short-term strength is rising or fading during the day.
Last hour: the MACD is above its signal line, meaning momentum is bullish and it is getting stronger. The lines crossed within the last 5 hours.
How to read this chart
- Blue line (MACD) above the orange one (signal): short-term momentum is bullish. Below it: bearish.
- The bars show the distance between the two lines: green above zero and red below zero. Taller bars = stronger momentum; shrinking bars = momentum is fading.
- When the lines cross, momentum switches sides. It is a short-term technical signal, not an order to buy or sell.
Hourly data updates during each market's session and may be delayed.
EUR/USD support and resistance
A support is a price where the market has already bounced several times: buyers tend to show up there. A resistance is the opposite: a ceiling where sellers tend to show up. They are detected over the last three months of daily candles; more touches means a more relevant level.
| Level | Price | Distance | Touches | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.1683 | +1.68% | 2 | Medium |
| Resistance | 1.1579 | +0.78% | 1 | Light |
| Last close | 1.14903 | |||
| Support | 1.1367 | -1.08% | 2 | Medium |
EUR/USD weekly forecast: next 5 daily candles
A machine-learning model (LightGBM) trained on price history, RSI, MACD, ATR, Fibonacci retracements and the economic calendar predicts each close from the previous one. Since each step carries the previous step's error, the likely range widens over the days.
| Date | Projected close | vs. current close | Likely range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1504 | +0.12% | 1.1465 – 1.1543 | |
| 1.1519 | +0.25% | 1.1463 – 1.1575 | |
| 1.1533 | +0.38% | 1.1465 – 1.1602 | |
| 1.1551 | +0.52% | 1.1472 – 1.1629 | |
| 1.1538 | +0.42% | 1.1450 – 1.1626 |
- Direction hit rate on 246 out-of-sample sessions: 54.9%. 50% is a coin flip: the model is a study aid, not a crystal ball.
- Average one-session error: ±0.0031
It's a statistical estimate, not a promise: the market can move outside the range. Use it as context for studying, never as a buy or sell signal.
Today's and this week's read: EUR/USD
7 of 8 signals point bearish, so EUR/USD reads as bearish (strong conviction). The model projects a close near 1.1538 in 5 sessions (+0.4%), with a likely range of 1.1450–1.1626. Note that the model points against the trend: a reason for caution, not a reversal signal. On weekly candles the read is bearish (4 of 5 signals), matching the daily read. A bounce toward the 1.1579 resistance (tested 1x) is where sellers have defended before. Watch 1.1367: a daily close below it would confirm more downside; holding it points to a relief bounce.
The signals behind the verdict
It's not an opinion: it's the tally of eight technical checks. Green counts toward the bullish case, red toward the bearish one.
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Price vs. 50-day average 1.1490 vs 1.1538
Price trades below its 50-day average: sellers dominate the medium term.
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Price vs. 200-day average 1.1490 vs 1.1630
Below the 200-day average: the long-term trend is damaged.
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50-day vs. 200-day average 1.1538 / 1.1630
The 50-day is below the 200-day (“death cross”): the underlying regime is bearish.
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20-day average slope -0.20%
The 20-day average fell over the last week: short-term momentum is negative.
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14-day RSI 37
RSI below 50: selling strength outweighs buying strength.
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MACD vs. its signal line -0.001129 / 0.001001
MACD is below its signal line: momentum is accelerating downward.
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High/low structure
The structure of the last 10 sessions (highs and lows) favors sellers.
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Model projection +0.42%
The AI model projects a higher close within 5 sessions.
Economic calendar for September 2026
The month's medium- and high-impact US events, with what each one measures and its usual effect on EUR/USD. Releases that surprise versus the forecast are the ones that cause the biggest candles.
15 events · 8 high-impact
There are no indicators published for next week yet. The calendar source publishes them closer to the start of the week (usually around the weekend) and they will show up here on their own as soon as they are available. In the meantime, one release that repeats every week: US jobless claims come out every Thursday.
There are no medium- or high-impact indicators registered for this week.
There are no events registered this month yet. The calendar updates every day.
There are no high-impact indicators in this period. Turn the filter off to see the medium-impact ones.
| Date | Time | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (inflation)Core CPI m/m | High | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much the prices consumers pay rose. The 'core' version strips out food and energy and shows underlying inflation, the one the Fed watches most. Effect on EUR/USD: US inflation above forecast suggests a tougher Fed, a stronger dollar and a lower EUR/USD; below forecast, the opposite. |
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| Consumer Price Index (inflation)CPI y/y | High | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much the prices consumers pay rose. The 'core' version strips out food and energy and shows underlying inflation, the one the Fed watches most. Effect on EUR/USD: US inflation above forecast suggests a tougher Fed, a stronger dollar and a lower EUR/USD; below forecast, the opposite. |
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| Consumer Price Index (inflation)CPI m/m | High | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much the prices consumers pay rose. The 'core' version strips out food and energy and shows underlying inflation, the one the Fed watches most. Effect on EUR/USD: US inflation above forecast suggests a tougher Fed, a stronger dollar and a lower EUR/USD; below forecast, the opposite. |
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| Consumer Price Index (inflation)Core CPI y/y | High | 2.4% | 2.5% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much the prices consumers pay rose. The 'core' version strips out food and energy and shows underlying inflation, the one the Fed watches most. Effect on EUR/USD: US inflation above forecast suggests a tougher Fed, a stronger dollar and a lower EUR/USD; below forecast, the opposite. |
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| Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | Medium | — | 4.3% | — | ||
|
What it measures: A medium-impact release: it adds context on the US economy without being decisive by itself. Effect on EUR/USD: Usually a small impact on EUR/USD unless it surprises a lot versus the forecast. |
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| Consumer sentimentPrelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 51.0 | 51.0 | — | ||
|
What it measures: A survey of how optimistic households feel about their finances and future inflation. Effect on EUR/USD: US data better than expected strengthens the dollar and pressures EUR/USD; worse data relieves it. |
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| Speech by an economic officialTreasury Sec Bessent Speaks | Medium | — | — | — | ||
|
What it measures: A Treasury or Fed official speaks in public. It brings no hard data, but it does drop clues on fiscal or monetary policy. Effect on EUR/USD: Any hint about rates or the dollar moves the pair within minutes; the market parses every sentence. |
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| Retail salesRetail Sales m/m | Medium | 0.8% | -0.6% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much consumers spent in stores and online. Consumption is ~70% of the US economy, so this is a big gauge of economic strength. Effect on EUR/USD: US data better than expected strengthens the dollar and pressures EUR/USD; worse data relieves it. |
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| Retail salesCore Retail Sales m/m | Medium | 0.6% | -0.3% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much consumers spent in stores and online. Consumption is ~70% of the US economy, so this is a big gauge of economic strength. Effect on EUR/USD: US data better than expected strengthens the dollar and pressures EUR/USD; worse data relieves it. |
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| FOMC economic projectionsFOMC Economic Projections | High | — | — | — | ||
|
What it measures: The 'dot plot': each Fed member marks where they expect rates, growth and inflation to be over the next years. Effect on EUR/USD: Higher-than-expected US rates, or a hawkish Fed tone, strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD down; cuts or a dovish tone push it up. |
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| FOMC statementFOMC Statement | High | — | — | — | ||
|
What it measures: The official text released with the rate decision. Change one or two words and the market reads it as a shift in monetary policy. Effect on EUR/USD: Higher-than-expected US rates, or a hawkish Fed tone, strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD down; cuts or a dovish tone push it up. |
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| Fed interest rate decisionFederal Funds Rate | High | 4.00% | 3.75% | — | ||
|
What it measures: The Federal Reserve sets the cost of money in the US. It is the single most important economic decision of the month: it defines how cheap or expensive borrowing is. Effect on EUR/USD: Higher-than-expected US rates, or a hawkish Fed tone, strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD down; cuts or a dovish tone push it up. |
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| Fed chair press conferenceFOMC Press Conference | High | — | — | — | ||
|
What it measures: The Fed chair explains the decision and takes questions. Hints about the next steps usually surface here. Effect on EUR/USD: Higher-than-expected US rates, or a hawkish Fed tone, strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD down; cuts or a dovish tone push it up. |
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| Weekly jobless claimsUnemployment Claims | Medium | 207K | 206K | — | ||
|
What it measures: How many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time this week. A quick thermometer of the labor market. Effect on EUR/USD: Strong US jobs data tends to strengthen the dollar (EUR/USD falls); weak data weakens it (EUR/USD rises). It is one of the releases that moves this pair the most. |
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| Regional Fed manufacturing surveyPhilly Fed Manufacturing Index | Medium | 31.3 | 47.4 | — | ||
|
What it measures: A monthly survey of factories in one US region, published before the national PMI as an early read. Effect on EUR/USD: US data better than expected strengthens the dollar and pressures EUR/USD; worse data relieves it. |
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Times are shown in your time zone. The calendar updates daily with the current week's events and, once the source has published the next one, with those too: the month fills in as it goes.
Frequently asked questions about EUR/USD analysis
Is EUR/USD bullish or bearish today?
As of the close on September 18, 2026, 7 of 8 technical signals point down, so EUR/USD reads as bearish (strong conviction). It is an educational, rule-based reading, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
How is the trend determined as bullish or bearish?
We count eight technical checks: price versus the 50- and 200-day averages, the cross of those averages, the slope of the 20-day average, RSI, MACD, the high/low structure and the model's projection. If most point up, the trend reads bullish; otherwise, bearish. The more agree, the higher the conviction.
What is the weekly trend of EUR/USD?
On weekly candles, 4 of 5 signals point down, so the weekly trend of EUR/USD reads as bearish. We compare price with the 10- and 40-week averages, the cross of both, and the weekly RSI and MACD. The two timeframes (daily and weekly) can differ: it is worth looking at both.
What are the support and resistance levels of EUR/USD today?
The nearest support is at 1.1367 and the nearest resistance at 1.1579, detected over the last months of daily candles. The more times price reacted at a level, the more relevant it is.
What is the weekly investment forecast for EUR/USD?
It is an educational estimate, not a recommendation: a statistical model projects a close near 1.1538 on September 25, 2026 (+0.4% versus the current close), with a likely range of 1.1450 to 1.1626. It covers the next trading week (5 daily candles) and the market can move outside that range.
What moves the price of EUR/USD?
It depends on the interest-rate gap between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, inflation, jobs and growth in the US and the eurozone. A stronger dollar tends to push EUR/USD down.
What is algorithmic trading and how is it used in this analysis?
Algorithmic trading uses rules and mathematical models, instead of gut feeling, to analyze the market. Here we apply that approach to analysis: technical rules (moving averages, RSI, MACD, support levels) and a machine-learning model produce the trend read and the forecast. We only analyze: we do not execute trades or manage money.
How often is this analysis updated?
It is recalculated on each visit using the latest daily candles available. The economic calendar adds the medium- and high-impact US events every day.
Keep learning
Informational and educational content. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell; trading in the markets carries a risk of loss.