Bitcoin · daily candles Data as of the close on 20/09/2026
Bitcoin trading analysis: daily and weekly
80259.36 -0.79% Last close
- RSI (14)
- 61.2
- vs. 50-day average
- +10.21%
- Projected close in 5 candles
- 80973 +0.89%
- Typical daily range
- 2.78%
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trading follows the largest cryptocurrency, which trades 24 hours a day, every day. This page does a daily and weekly trading analysis: bullish or bearish trend, support and resistance levels, a weekly forecast for the next 5 sessions from an algorithmic model and the US economic data that tends to influence risk appetite.
Educational and informational content: it is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Trading involves risk of loss. full disclaimer.
Bitcoin daily candlestick chart
Timeframe: Daily (1D)Each candle is one day (daily timeframe, 1D). Hover any candle to see its data. Drag to move around, change the range with the buttons and switch layers on or off. The colored lines and zones are the detected support and resistance levels; the hollow candles at the end, with their date underneath, are the projection for the next 5 days.
Tip: with “Draw line” or “Draw zone” you can mark your own levels on the chart.
Bitcoin hourly MACD
Timeframe: Hourly (1H)The MACD measures price momentum by comparing two averages (12 and 26 hours). Here each bar is one hour: it shows whether short-term strength is rising or fading during the day.
Last hour: the MACD is below its signal line, meaning momentum is bearish and it is getting stronger.
How to read this chart
- Blue line (MACD) above the orange one (signal): short-term momentum is bullish. Below it: bearish.
- The bars show the distance between the two lines: green above zero and red below zero. Taller bars = stronger momentum; shrinking bars = momentum is fading.
- When the lines cross, momentum switches sides. It is a short-term technical signal, not an order to buy or sell.
Hourly data updates during each market's session and may be delayed.
Bitcoin support and resistance
A support is a price where the market has already bounced several times: buyers tend to show up there. A resistance is the opposite: a ceiling where sellers tend to show up. They are detected over the last three months of daily candles; more touches means a more relevant level.
| Level | Price | Distance | Touches | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 82262 | +2.5% | 1 | Light |
| Resistance | 81347 | +1.36% | 1 | Light |
| Last close | 80259.36 | |||
| Support | 76909 | -4.17% | 1 | Light |
| Support | 76206 | -5.05% | 2 | Medium |
| Support | 61998 | -22.75% | 2 | Medium |
| Support | 57912 | -27.84% | 2 | Medium |
Bitcoin weekly forecast: next 5 daily candles
A machine-learning model (LightGBM) trained on price history, RSI, MACD, ATR, Fibonacci retracements and the economic calendar predicts each close from the previous one. Since each step carries the previous step's error, the likely range widens over the days.
| Date | Projected close | vs. current close | Likely range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81291 | +1.29% | 79492 – 83091 | |
| 80873 | +0.77% | 78328 – 83419 | |
| 80887 | +0.78% | 77769 – 84004 | |
| 80930 | +0.83% | 77330 – 84529 | |
| 80973 | +0.89% | 76949 – 84997 |
- Direction hit rate on 345 out-of-sample sessions: 52.5%. 50% is a coin flip: the model is a study aid, not a crystal ball.
- Average one-session error: ±1440
It's a statistical estimate, not a promise: the market can move outside the range. Use it as context for studying, never as a buy or sell signal.
Today's and this week's read: Bitcoin
5 of 8 signals point bullish, so Bitcoin reads as bullish (moderate conviction). The model projects a close near 80,973 in 5 sessions (+0.9%), with a likely range of 76,949–84,997. On weekly candles the read is bullish (4 of 5 signals), matching the daily read. A pullback toward the 76,909 support (tested 1x) is the classic area where buyers step back in. Watch 81,347: a daily close above it would confirm the move; if price is rejected there, sellers have defended that area before.
The signals behind the verdict
It's not an opinion: it's the tally of eight technical checks. Green counts toward the bullish case, red toward the bearish one.
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Price vs. 50-day average 80,259 vs 72,822
Price trades above its 50-day average: buyers dominate the medium term.
-
Price vs. 200-day average 80,259 vs 70,457
Above the 200-day average: the long-term trend is still intact.
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50-day vs. 200-day average 72,822 / 70,457
The 50-day is above the 200-day (the so-called “golden cross”): the underlying regime is bullish.
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20-day average slope -0.24%
The 20-day average fell over the last week: short-term momentum is negative.
-
14-day RSI 61
RSI above 50: buying strength outweighs selling strength.
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MACD vs. its signal line 1235 / 1464
MACD is below its signal line: momentum is accelerating downward.
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High/low structure
The structure of the last 10 sessions (highs and lows) favors sellers.
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Model projection +0.89%
The AI model projects a higher close within 5 sessions.
Economic calendar for September 2026
The month's medium- and high-impact US events, with what each one measures and its usual effect on Bitcoin. Releases that surprise versus the forecast are the ones that cause the biggest candles.
15 events · 8 high-impact
There are no indicators published for next week yet. The calendar source publishes them closer to the start of the week (usually around the weekend) and they will show up here on their own as soon as they are available. In the meantime, one release that repeats every week: US jobless claims come out every Thursday.
There are no medium- or high-impact indicators registered for this week.
There are no events registered this month yet. The calendar updates every day.
There are no high-impact indicators in this period. Turn the filter off to see the medium-impact ones.
| Date | Time | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (inflation)Core CPI m/m | High | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much the prices consumers pay rose. The 'core' version strips out food and energy and shows underlying inflation, the one the Fed watches most. Effect on Bitcoin: High inflation means higher-for-longer rates and tends to weigh on Bitcoin; low inflation brings relief and tends to lift it along with other risk assets. |
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| Consumer Price Index (inflation)CPI y/y | High | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much the prices consumers pay rose. The 'core' version strips out food and energy and shows underlying inflation, the one the Fed watches most. Effect on Bitcoin: High inflation means higher-for-longer rates and tends to weigh on Bitcoin; low inflation brings relief and tends to lift it along with other risk assets. |
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| Consumer Price Index (inflation)CPI m/m | High | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much the prices consumers pay rose. The 'core' version strips out food and energy and shows underlying inflation, the one the Fed watches most. Effect on Bitcoin: High inflation means higher-for-longer rates and tends to weigh on Bitcoin; low inflation brings relief and tends to lift it along with other risk assets. |
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| Consumer Price Index (inflation)Core CPI y/y | High | 2.4% | 2.5% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much the prices consumers pay rose. The 'core' version strips out food and energy and shows underlying inflation, the one the Fed watches most. Effect on Bitcoin: High inflation means higher-for-longer rates and tends to weigh on Bitcoin; low inflation brings relief and tends to lift it along with other risk assets. |
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| Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | Medium | — | 4.3% | — | ||
|
What it measures: A medium-impact release: it adds context on the US economy without being decisive by itself. Effect on Bitcoin: Indirect impact on Bitcoin, through liquidity and risk appetite; usually small. |
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| Consumer sentimentPrelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 51.0 | 51.0 | — | ||
|
What it measures: A survey of how optimistic households feel about their finances and future inflation. Effect on Bitcoin: Bitcoin follows the market's risk mood: data that pushes recession away helps; data that brings it closer, or fuels higher rates, tends to weigh. |
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| Speech by an economic officialTreasury Sec Bessent Speaks | Medium | — | — | — | ||
|
What it measures: A Treasury or Fed official speaks in public. It brings no hard data, but it does drop clues on fiscal or monetary policy. Effect on Bitcoin: Bitcoin trades 24 hours a day and reacts immediately to changes of tone on rates and liquidity, sometimes with exaggerated moves. |
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| Retail salesRetail Sales m/m | Medium | 0.8% | -0.6% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much consumers spent in stores and online. Consumption is ~70% of the US economy, so this is a big gauge of economic strength. Effect on Bitcoin: Bitcoin follows the market's risk mood: data that pushes recession away helps; data that brings it closer, or fuels higher rates, tends to weigh. |
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| Retail salesCore Retail Sales m/m | Medium | 0.6% | -0.3% | — | ||
|
What it measures: How much consumers spent in stores and online. Consumption is ~70% of the US economy, so this is a big gauge of economic strength. Effect on Bitcoin: Bitcoin follows the market's risk mood: data that pushes recession away helps; data that brings it closer, or fuels higher rates, tends to weigh. |
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| FOMC economic projectionsFOMC Economic Projections | High | — | — | — | ||
|
What it measures: The 'dot plot': each Fed member marks where they expect rates, growth and inflation to be over the next years. Effect on Bitcoin: Bitcoin behaves like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset: lower rates or a dovish tone tend to help it; higher rates or a hawkish tone weigh on it. |
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| FOMC statementFOMC Statement | High | — | — | — | ||
|
What it measures: The official text released with the rate decision. Change one or two words and the market reads it as a shift in monetary policy. Effect on Bitcoin: Bitcoin behaves like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset: lower rates or a dovish tone tend to help it; higher rates or a hawkish tone weigh on it. |
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| Fed interest rate decisionFederal Funds Rate | High | 4.00% | 3.75% | — | ||
|
What it measures: The Federal Reserve sets the cost of money in the US. It is the single most important economic decision of the month: it defines how cheap or expensive borrowing is. Effect on Bitcoin: Bitcoin behaves like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset: lower rates or a dovish tone tend to help it; higher rates or a hawkish tone weigh on it. |
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| Fed chair press conferenceFOMC Press Conference | High | — | — | — | ||
|
What it measures: The Fed chair explains the decision and takes questions. Hints about the next steps usually surface here. Effect on Bitcoin: Bitcoin behaves like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset: lower rates or a dovish tone tend to help it; higher rates or a hawkish tone weigh on it. |
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| Weekly jobless claimsUnemployment Claims | Medium | 207K | 206K | — | ||
|
What it measures: How many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time this week. A quick thermometer of the labor market. Effect on Bitcoin: A 'just right' jobs number favors risk appetite; one that is too strong (more rate pressure) or too weak (recession) tends to trigger drops in Bitcoin. |
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| Regional Fed manufacturing surveyPhilly Fed Manufacturing Index | Medium | 31.3 | 47.4 | — | ||
|
What it measures: A monthly survey of factories in one US region, published before the national PMI as an early read. Effect on Bitcoin: Bitcoin follows the market's risk mood: data that pushes recession away helps; data that brings it closer, or fuels higher rates, tends to weigh. |
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Times are shown in your time zone. The calendar updates daily with the current week's events and, once the source has published the next one, with those too: the month fills in as it goes.
Frequently asked questions about Bitcoin analysis
Is Bitcoin bullish or bearish today?
As of the close on September 20, 2026, 5 of 8 technical signals point up, so Bitcoin reads as bullish (moderate conviction). It is an educational, rule-based reading, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
How is the trend determined as bullish or bearish?
We count eight technical checks: price versus the 50- and 200-day averages, the cross of those averages, the slope of the 20-day average, RSI, MACD, the high/low structure and the model's projection. If most point up, the trend reads bullish; otherwise, bearish. The more agree, the higher the conviction.
What is the weekly trend of Bitcoin?
On weekly candles, 4 of 5 signals point up, so the weekly trend of Bitcoin reads as bullish. We compare price with the 10- and 40-week averages, the cross of both, and the weekly RSI and MACD. The two timeframes (daily and weekly) can differ: it is worth looking at both.
What are the support and resistance levels of Bitcoin today?
The nearest support is at 76,909 and the nearest resistance at 81,347, detected over the last months of daily candles. The more times price reacted at a level, the more relevant it is.
What is the weekly investment forecast for Bitcoin?
It is an educational estimate, not a recommendation: a statistical model projects a close near 80,973 on September 25, 2026 (+0.9% versus the current close), with a likely range of 76,949 to 84,997. It covers the next trading week (5 daily candles) and the market can move outside that range.
What moves the price of Bitcoin?
It moves with market risk appetite, liquidity and rate expectations, regulatory news and investor sentiment, with frequent sharp moves.
What is algorithmic trading and how is it used in this analysis?
Algorithmic trading uses rules and mathematical models, instead of gut feeling, to analyze the market. Here we apply that approach to analysis: technical rules (moving averages, RSI, MACD, support levels) and a machine-learning model produce the trend read and the forecast. We only analyze: we do not execute trades or manage money.
How often is this analysis updated?
It is recalculated on each visit using the latest daily candles available. The economic calendar adds the medium- and high-impact US events every day.
Keep learning
Informational and educational content. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell; trading in the markets carries a risk of loss.