I'm picking the "Investor journal" series back up to talk about something you've probably already noticed if you've been following the scanner this week: both the Nasdaq and SpaceX have been recovering ground, but for fairly different reasons. It's worth separating them, because mixing them together leads to the wrong conclusions about either one.
The Nasdaq: macro relief plus momentum
The Nasdaq's recent recovery comes down to a mix of economic relief and pure market momentum. On one hand, inflation finally eased and bond yields calmed down, which gave tech stocks some breathing room: when bond yields fall, the "opportunity cost" of holding growth stocks (worth more for their future earnings than today's) falls too, and that pulls strong buying back into the tech sector. On the other hand, once the index starts climbing, pure momentum kicks in: more buyers step in simply because the price is already rising, not necessarily because they've re-priced every company one by one.
It's a distinction worth keeping in mind: part of this move has a real macroeconomic basis (rates, inflation), and part of it is market momentum, which can reverse as fast as it showed up if next month's inflation print disappoints.
SpaceX: digesting post-IPO volatility
SpaceX's story is different: this one is more about digesting volatility after its stock market debut. The price managed to climb back above its initial IPO value, and behind that is market confidence in what's coming with Starlink and Starship over the long run — the two bets that carry a big part of the company's forward growth narrative.
It's worth remembering something basic that's easy to forget: it's normal for a newly public stock to go through weeks (or months) of volatility while the market "finds" the right price, without the trading history that companies with years on the exchange already have. The price recovering its IPO level isn't, on its own, a sign the volatility is over — it's more of a psychological reference point than a technical one.
Why I'm separating these two stories
I'm sharing this exactly as I think about it because it's exactly the kind of distinction I try to explain on this site: a whole index (the Nasdaq) moves on macro forces and aggregate money flows, while a newly listed individual stock (SpaceX) moves on its own narrative and the specific mechanics of an IPO. Treating both moves as just "the market going up" leads to hasty conclusions — the Nasdaq isn't rallying because of Starlink, and SpaceX isn't rallying because of CPI.
This article shares a personal experience and opinion, for educational purposes. It is not investment advice nor a recommendation to buy or sell under any circumstance. Read our disclaimer before making any financial decision.